Is Kelowna in a Buyer's Market or Seller's Market in 2025?

If you've been watching the Kelowna real estate market over the past few years, you've probably felt whiplash. Bidding wars in 2021. Price corrections in 2022 and 2023. A slow grind through 2024 with rising inventory and cautious buyers. So where does that leave us now? The short answer: the Kelowna buyer's market 2025 conditions that emerged over the past couple of years have persisted, though the picture is more nuanced than a single label suggests. Depending on the property type you're looking at, conditions range from firmly buyer-friendly to something closer to balanced.

Let's break down the actual data, explain what terms like "months of supply" and "absorption rate" really mean, and give you an honest read on what to expect heading into 2026.

What Makes It a Buyer's Market vs. a Seller's Market?

Before digging into Kelowna's numbers, it helps to understand the terminology. These labels aren't just opinions thrown around by agents. They're based on measurable indicators that reveal who holds more negotiating power at the table.

Months of supply is the big one. Take the total number of active listings and divide by the number of homes sold that month. The result tells you how long it would take to sell every available home if no new listings appeared. Generally, less than four months of supply favours sellers, four to six months is considered balanced, and anything above six months tips the scales toward buyers. The higher the number, the more choice buyers have and the less pressure they feel to make quick decisions.

The sales-to-new-listings ratio offers another angle. It measures the percentage of new listings that actually sell. A ratio above 60% typically signals a seller's market. Between 40% and 60% is balanced territory. Below 40% means buyers have the upper hand.

Absorption rate works similarly. It's the percentage of active inventory that sells in a given month. Lower absorption means homes are sitting longer, which gives buyers leverage.

And then there's average days on market, which tells you how quickly (or slowly) homes are actually moving. When this number climbs, it's a clear signal that sellers need to work harder to attract offers.

Where Kelowna's Market Stood Through 2025

The year started with a continuation of the conditions that built through late 2023 and 2024. Inventory had been climbing steadily, and while sales were happening, they weren't keeping pace with the growing number of listings.

In the first quarter, inventory in the Central Okanagan sat roughly 21% higher year-over-year. According to data sourced from the Association of Interior Realtors, January 2025 saw a significant jump in new listings activity, and by March, there were 1,474 active listings in the Central Okanagan, up nearly 19% from the year before. Sales were respectable, with single-family home transactions up about 14% to 16% year-over-year through the first few months, but they weren't enough to absorb the growing supply.

By spring, the picture became clearer. Active listings in the Central Okanagan reached approximately 1,800 by May 2025, near record highs for the modern market. Single-family home sales jumped 19% year-over-year that month with 221 homes sold, but with 599 new listings arriving in the same period, supply kept outpacing demand.

Through the summer months, the pattern held. In July 2025, single-family home sales were up 8% with 198 transactions, but homes were taking an average of 55 days to sell, up from 51 days the previous July. Condos sat even longer at 67 days on average, a 26% increase from the year before.

By September 2025, the Central Okanagan had approximately 4,180 active listings with 398 units sold, producing an absorption rate of roughly 9.5%. That works out to about 10.5 months of supply, placing Kelowna firmly in buyer's market territory according to the data compiled by Coldwell Banker Horizon Realty.

The sales-to-new-listings ratio hovered between 40% and 45% through much of the year, which technically places the market in balanced territory by that single metric. But when you combine it with the elevated months of supply and longer days on market, the overall picture clearly favours buyers.

The Story Varies by Property Type

One of the biggest mistakes people make is treating the Kelowna housing market as a single entity. In reality, single-family homes, townhomes, and condos have each behaved quite differently through 2025.

Single-family homes have been the strongest segment. Prices showed resilience throughout the year, with the average sale price climbing to $1,150,234 in May 2025, up 9% from the year before. Even in July, the average came in at $1,053,775, still ahead of 2024 levels. Sales volumes were consistently up year-over-year. This segment behaved more like a balanced market, especially for move-in-ready homes priced accurately. The benchmark price for single-family homes in the Central Okanagan held relatively steady near the million-dollar mark throughout the year.

Townhomes told a mixed story. Sales dipped modestly through the summer, down 3% to 7% year-over-year depending on the month, though pricing held relatively steady. With the benchmark sitting around $725,000 to $736,000, townhomes occupied a middle ground, attractive to families priced out of detached homes but also facing increasing competition from newer construction.

Condos were the segment most firmly in buyer's market territory. Inventory grew substantially, with new condo listings up 13% year-over-year in July 2025. Condos were taking significantly longer to sell, averaging 67 to 71 days on market depending on the month. While average prices actually ticked up in some months, the sheer volume of available inventory and slower absorption made this the most buyer-friendly segment in Kelowna.

If you were a buyer shopping for a condo, 2025 gave you the most options and the most negotiating leverage. If you were targeting a well-priced detached home in a desirable neighbourhood, competition was noticeably stiffer.

What Interest Rates Did to the Kelowna Housing Market

You can't talk about market conditions without talking about rates. The Bank of Canada delivered a series of rate cuts through 2025, bringing the overnight rate down from the highs that had choked affordability. By October 2025, the rate had dropped to 2.25%, where it remained as of the January 2026 announcement. That's a significant decline from the 5% peak in 2023.

Lower rates improved purchasing power and helped qualification rules loosen up. More buyers could get approved, and monthly payments on new mortgages became more manageable. This contributed to the uptick in sales activity through the year, particularly in the single-family segment.

But here's the thing: lower rates didn't trigger a price surge. Unlike 2020 and 2021, when rate cuts fueled a frenzy, this time around the impact was muted. Inventory was already elevated, giving buyers options. Economic uncertainty tied to U.S. tariffs and trade tensions kept some buyers cautious. And many sellers who'd been waiting for better conditions finally listed their properties, adding to supply right as demand was picking up.

The result was a market where more transactions were happening, but prices weren't running away. For buyers, that combination of improved affordability through lower rates plus ample inventory created genuinely favourable conditions, something Kelowna hadn't seen since before the pandemic.

Kelowna Real Estate Forecast: What 2026 Looks Like

As we move into 2026, the Kelowna housing market prediction points toward continued buyer-friendly conditions in the near term, with some segments showing signs of moving toward balance.

The January 2026 numbers from the Association of Interior Realtors confirmed a seasonal slowdown, with 623 residential sales across the entire association region. In the Central Okanagan specifically, 226 units sold against 3,109 active listings. That puts the January absorption rate at approximately 7.3%, or about 13.8 months of supply, which remains squarely in buyer's market territory, though January is traditionally the slowest month of the year and shouldn't be read as representative of the full-year trend.

New listings declined about 16% compared to January 2025, suggesting sellers are also being cautious to start the year. Active listings dipped roughly 2.5% year-over-year, which is the first sign that the inventory buildup may be levelling off.

Here's what the Kelowna real estate forecast 2025 data tells us going forward:

For buyers, conditions remain favourable. You have options, time to make decisions, and room to negotiate. The Bank of Canada's overnight rate is holding at 2.25%, and most analysts expect stability through 2026 barring a significant shift in trade policy. Mortgage rates should remain relatively predictable. The best opportunities will be in the condo market and in properties that have been sitting on the market for 60-plus days, where sellers are more likely to be flexible on price.

For sellers, accurate pricing has never been more important. Homes that are move-in ready and priced in line with recent comparable sales are still selling at a reasonable pace. The data consistently showed that well-presented single-family homes in desirable neighbourhoods attracted interest even in a buyer's market. But overpriced listings sat for months. The average discount from list price hovered around 2% to 3% through 2025, meaning sellers who priced 5% or more above market value found themselves chasing the market down.

Is now a good time to buy in Kelowna? The data supports it, particularly if you're in a position to act without the pressure of selling first. You're buying into a market with more selection than Kelowna has seen in years, with interest rates that are dramatically lower than the 2023 peak, and with pricing that's been essentially flat to modestly positive for the past 12 to 18 months. That's a combination of factors that rarely line up at the same time.

What to Watch for in Kelowna's Housing Market Ahead

Several factors will determine whether Kelowna stays in buyer's market territory or shifts toward balance through the rest of 2026.

Spring listing activity will be crucial. If new listings moderate while sales continue to build on the momentum from late 2025, the months of supply could contract toward balanced territory by mid-year. Some local analysts, including projections from Vantage West Realty, suggested earlier that the market could reach a balanced state by May or June if demand continued building.

The CUSMA trade agreement review scheduled for 2026 introduces uncertainty. If negotiations become contentious, it could weigh on consumer confidence and slow economic activity, keeping the market in buyer's territory longer. Trade tensions have already been a factor in Kelowna's market through 2025, and any escalation would likely keep cautious buyers on the sidelines.

Migration patterns continue to work in Kelowna's favour. The Okanagan's lifestyle appeal, outdoor recreation, four-season climate, and growing infrastructure including the $108 million terminal expansion at Kelowna International Airport keep drawing people from the Lower Mainland, Alberta, and Ontario. That underlying demand provides a floor under the market, even during slower periods.

New construction and development activity is another variable. Builders have been shifting away from condo presales toward infill projects and purpose-built rentals. If condo supply continues to grow without proportional demand, that segment could see price softening. Meanwhile, limited new single-family lot inventory keeps supply constrained in the detached home segment.

The bottom line: the Kelowna housing market prediction for 2026 points toward gradual improvement for sellers while conditions remain generally buyer-friendly. Don't expect a dramatic shift in either direction. The market is recalibrating after the extremes of the pandemic era, and that recalibration takes time. For the first time in years, both buyers and sellers have the space to make thoughtful decisions without feeling rushed.

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